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Progress in trade negotiations and controlled carrier capacity support trans-Pacific market outlook

Container freight rates on trans-Pacific and Asia–North Europe routes surged by 15–20% last week, reaching $2,000–$3,500 per FEU depending on destination. These levels stand significantly higher than before the Red Sea crisis, as carriers maintained general rate increases (GRIs) and curtailed capacity through blanked sailings amid a seasonal slowdown.

According to Freightos, rates have “for the most part” sustained the mid-October GRIs as carriers adjusted service schedules to balance supply with subdued demand.

Freightos research chief Judah Levine reported that “trans-Pacific and Asia–North Europe rates increased 15% to 20% last week to about $2,000 per FEU to the U.S. West Coast, $3,500 per FEU to the East Coast, and $2,270 per FEU to Europe.” He added that rates have remained largely stable this week, with Asia–Mediterranean prices softening by roughly $100 per FEU.

The Freightos Baltic Index recorded a 20% rise in Asia–U.S. West Coast rates to $2,027 per FEU, a 15% increase to $2,267 per FEU for Asia–North Europe, and a 6% gain to $2,278 per FEU for Asia–Mediterranean services. Levine noted that current figures are “well above” those seen before the Red Sea crisis that began in October 2023.

Industry analysts expect that further GRIs could emerge in November, though their sustainability will hinge on continued capacity discipline among carriers.

While a fragile ceasefire between Hamas and Israel keeps the Red Sea–Suez Canal corridor unstable, optimism in the broader trade environment is being lifted by progress in regional trade agreements and prospects for U.S.–China trade de-escalation.

Announcements of new trade frameworks have fueled expectations that Washington and Beijing may ease tariff tensions ahead of the planned meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea this week. Levine suggested the talks could result in “an extension of existing tariff levels from the May truce — or possibly a reduction in U.S. baseline duties on China if fentanyl-related tariffs are revised — and a review of recently introduced port call fees.”

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Biên tập: Cofast News Editorial Team (theo Freightwaves)

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